After 36 days of campaigning, Canada’s 44th election results look a lot like its 43rd in 2019. Another minority government will mean the Liberals must again choose their dancing partners to pass legislation. Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s acceptance speech betrayed no disappointment in his failure to obtain a majority, saying Canadians had given him a “clear mandate” by electing another minority Liberal government.  

Despite the lack of change, there were some upsets that have altered the political landscape – and not just for the Liberals.  

Quebec outcome steals Liberal majority…again

The Bloc Québécois came in third place Monday but fell short of its goal of 40 seats after the party failed to turn post-debate outrage into electoral gains. The sovereigntist party received a third of Quebec’s popular vote, added two seats to its pre-election number, and very likely stole another majority win from Trudeau.  

O’Toole’s bid for a more progressive party insufficient to beat Liberals

Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole’s attempt to steer his party back to the centre of Canada’s political spectrum during the election was not enough to surpass Trudeau’s Liberals. However, while the party redesign yielded minimal gains, the CPC did manage to hold the Liberal Party to another minority government and won both the total amount of votes and voting percentage.  Meanwhile, O’Toole gained more recognition and popularity amongst Canadians, putting him in a better position for the next election.

Surprise wins

Liberals have a foothold in Alberta again:

• Former City Councillor George Chahal won Calgary Skyview over Conservative Jag Sahota, who had only been elected the first time in 2019.

• Former MP Randy Boissonnault won Edmonton Centre against Conservative James Cumming – also first elected in 2019.

Conservatives defeated 3 Liberal Ministers:

• Rick Perkins won in South Shore—St. Margarets, defeating Fisheries, Oceans and Coast Guard Minister Bernadette Jordan, largely due to a dispute over Indigenous treaty rights and the lobster industry.

• Anna Roberts defeated Seniors Minister Deb Schulte in King-Vaughan in a tight 2.9% victory.

• Michelle Ferreri won in Peterborough-Kawartha over Women and Gender Equality Minister Maryam Monsef, who lost support over her mid-campaign comments referring to the Taliban as “our brothers” while addressing     Canada’s Afghan evacuation efforts, as well as her riding’s close proximity to that of CPC Leader O’Toole’s in Durham.

The NDP flipped three ridings:

• Blake Desjarlais won in Edmonton Griesbach against Conservative Kerry Diotte, who was first elected in 2015 and is a former city councillor.

• Bonita Zarillo won in Port Moody—Coquitlam over Conservative Nelly Shin, the first Korean Canadian elected to the House in 2019.

• Lisa Marie Barron defeated the Green party’s Paul Manly in Nanaimo-Ladysmith disappointing Green members who wished to hold their 2019 gains.

A bad night for the greens, with one notable exception:

• Mike Morrice won for the Greens in Kitchener Centre over expelled Liberal incumbent Raj Saini, their first ever federal seat in Ontario.

FHR Analysis

Pierre Cyr, Vice President (Liberal): Albeit a similar outcome to the 2019 election, the Liberals were able to win another strong minority mandate and made some important regional gains in Alberta.  In the coming days, the PM must demonstrate he has listened to the electorate and make some major changes.  With the defeat of three ministers, the Prime Minister has the opportunity of making a major refresh of his cabinet.

John Capobianco, Senior Vice President (Conservative): The mid-pandemic election campaign called by Justin Trudeau, fueled by aspirations of achieving a majority government and stronger mandate to get Canadians through this pandemic, was for naught.  At a cost of over $600 million, we have essentially the same Parliament – give or take a few seats, but with a more divided Canada. Erin O’Toole, who came from a significant polling disadvantage at the beginning of the campaign, worked to gain the popular vote over the Liberals during the course of the election. O’Toole has gained more recognition amongst Canadians despite losing the election and has gained in popularity, thereby elevating his chances for the next election.

Jennifer Anthony, Senior Vice President (NDP): Throughout the campaign, Jagmeet Singh was repeatedly cited as the most liked leader, the most authentic and as a fighter for people. In the last two years, New Democrats worked hard to ensure supports that Canadians needed, and they will continue to play that role, moving forward. In this election, the NDP picked up additional seats, and will return to Ottawa with a larger and energized caucus, prepared to leverage their greater influence in the minority Parliament.

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